The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released full-year 2011 world oil production data. In this post, I would like show some graphs of recent data, and provide some views as to where this leads with respect to future production.
World oil supply is not growing very much
Figure 1. World crude oil and other "liquids" supply has dropped below the 1983-2005 trend line in recent years.
Rising oil and gasoline prices are of concern to many people today. I see three basic issues involved:
Stalled Out Oil Supply Leads to Five Million Barrel a Day Shortfall in 2011
In my view, the biggest contributor to high oil prices is the first one–stalled out oil supply.
There are seven billion people on earth now. I originally thought that the primary reason for the recent human population explosion was that fossil fuels enabled a larger food supply and better medicine, and thus a higher population.
Figure 1. World population from US Census Bureau, overlaid with fossil fuel use (red) by Vaclav Smil from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects.
(as posted at schiffradio.com)
Goldline are masters of deception. They use subtle verbal bullying to get you to question any skepticism you might have or any clarifications you might seek. I called them and said that I was a bit uncomfortable wiring them my money and then them having my money and me having nothing. The salesman replied, “What do you think we are going to do, keep your money? We have a business to protect, we have a 50 year reputation on the line.” The implicit message was “What are you doing questioning our process and sales practices?” The goal of the salesman is to get the customer to behave. They constantly repeat that they’ve been in business for 50 years, that they know how to get you the best deal, but then when you ask for clarification, they browbeat you. When I expressed another concern to another sales rep he retorted “What, do you think, it’s a conspiracy [on our part]?” I had to remind him that I said nothing about a conspiracy, I was merely asking for clarification of a business practice that seemed to not make sense to me.
That said, here is what I can tell about GoldLine. They say you can buy fractional coins (< 1 oz) over the phone with a credit card. They quoted me a 1/2 oz Canadian Maple Leaf for $1,003 dollars. I was in disbelief, I asked "What is the reason for the $200 markup?" Again he talked down to me, as if I hadn't a clue about how to transact in gold (hint: I do, that's the problem). He explained to me that the reason for the high markup was so that they could offer me the best "liquidation price" possible. So in other words, their logic is that one should throw a 20% markup to Goldline for a very common liquid coin just for the privilege of Goldline buying it back from you at the spot price of the coin. (Not their sale price, the market spot price for the coin or about $800 for a 1/2 oz Maple Leaf as of now). What a joke. They talk about buying and selling Gold like it's a Stock (market) transaction. They present it as something way more sophisticated and confusing than it really is.
What they will try to convince you with every trick, overt or covert, is for you to trust them with their money, to NOT ask questions, and to make sure you understand that to do anything else but throw your money at Goldline is foolish.
There is all kinds of diversion and subterfuge. They say you can buy fractionals with a credit card (I wasn’t about to verify this at that price!), but to buy a 1 oz coin which they quote at prices so cheap as to beg belief (the bait), you must open up a “Secure Private Account”, wire the money to it, and only then will they get back with you and let you truly know what your options are.
It’s ironic that they play the reputation card.
Finally, if you look at their website you can see why Glenn Beck and others support them. Glenn Beck et. al. are selling their brand and endorsement to Goldline. And here is an instant credibility check: is a talk show host prominently featured on Goldline’s website hawking Goldline? Zero credibility. Glenn Beck, Laura Ingraham, Mark Levin, Dennis Miller. The worst of the Right-Wing stereotype.
These folks are sell-outs, nothing more, it’s why they have talk shows: to make mad money from deceitful advertising off of their very own listeners. Peter is the only person I’ve heard warn about some of the advertisers on his own show. He’s also the only talk show host I’m aware of who lets you listen to his show ad-free. Capitalism is meaningless without ethics.
North Tampa Former Borders Books
I thought I’d check out the old Borders close to home before they close. I was kind of surprised they were still open. Well actually they aren’t. What I found was the “Former Borders Store”. In fact this Borders is already closed and has been taken over by a liquidator. What I had come to see wasn’t there. What was there was a ghost of the Borders Books I’ve visited over a hundred times in the last decade. Many aisles were gone, the magazine rack looked eviscerated, well the whole store did, like it had been picked over by scavengers. I took a video with my phone but it’s too wobbly. Ah well, farewell Borders, ye were a good second home. 
The Chevy Volt costs $40,000. It has 35 miles electric range. Is this economical, is it green? Let’s look at the numbers. First understand that money is energy. Money is a claim on energy, which can take the form of electricity, oil, and/ or human labor. That’s money/energy equivalence.
The EPA says the Volt in electric mode gets the equivalent of 93 mpg. The Toyota Prius hybrid gets 50 mpg on gas.
The middle of the line Prius is about $24,000. The Volt starts at $40,000. Does it make sense to pay an extra $16,000 premium for the volt, for your wallet or for reducing fossil fuel consumption?
We’ll assume conventional gasoline is $4.00 a gallon. We’ll also assume the Volt is only driven in electric mode and that an equivalent amount of energy from your power company to that of a gallon of gas is $3.75 (this assumes 11¢ per kWh times 34 kWh). [there are about 34 kWh in a gallon of gasoline, see MPGe ].
We will assume both vehicles are driven 12,000 miles a year, a reasonable assumption given the Volts electric range.
The Prius gets you 50 mpg. At $4/gal that’s 8¢ a mile. The volt gets you 93 mpg. That’s 4¢ a mile, a savings of 4¢ a mile.
Ok, now we’re ready to crunch the numbers. 4¢ x 12,000 miles equals a savings of $480 a year. Now how long will it take to make up that $16,000 premium you paid? 33 years. Oops! If you drive the Volt for 10 years you will only save $4,800 on energy. That puts you over $11,000 in the hole.
Not economical.
Now let’s assume the electricity you use to charge the volt is ‘green’/alternative, all hydroelectric, solar, wind or (if your generous) nuclear. Are you helping the environment and/or reducing our dependence on fossil fuels? What do you think happens to that $11,000 premium you paid? It is additional money spent to make the vehicle. This means extra energy and manpower and ultimately a good (though indeterminate) chunk of that extra money is spent on the crude oil used to make the car! You must factor in the cost of a vehicle and consider the energy associated with that cost to get the complete picture.
Verdict: EcoFAIL! EnergyFAIL! WalletFAIL!
